The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6
percent in August, following a 0.9 percent gain in July, and a 0.8 percent rise in June.
“Since reaching a peak in July 2007, the LEI fell for twenty months – the longest downtrend since
the mid 1970s – but ithas been rising since April and its gains have become very widespread,”
says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the
LEI continues to accelerate. At the same time, the downtrend in the coincident economic index,
measuring current economic activity, seems to be stabilizing, with the index flat so far
this quarter.”
Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI has risen for five consecutive
months and the coincident economic index has stopped falling. Taken together, this suggests that
the recession is bottoming out. These numbers are consistent with the view that after a very severe
downturn, a recovery is very near. But, the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in August,
following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.4 percent decline in June. The Conference Board
Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in August, following a 0.5 percent decline in
July, and a 0.9 percent decline in June.
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