Restrained Hiring and Moderation in Job Loss Expected for Q4, According to
Quarterly Job Forecast from CareerBuilder and USA TODAY
Employers Begin to Restore Pay Levels and Rehire Laid Off Employees
CHICAGO September 30, 2009 CareerBuilder and USA TODAY¹s Q4 2009 Job
Forecast shows that, while employers are feeling more optimistic about the
economy and job market, the majority plan to keep their staff levels the
same for the remainder of the year. Continued moderation in job loss
coupled with a hesitant approach to hiring is expected for the fourth
quarter, according to the survey, which was conducted by Harris Interactive®
from August 20 to September 9, 2009. More than 2,900 hiring managers and
human resource professionals across industries participated nationwide.
³Companies are switching their focus from cost containment to growth.
Employers who have instituted pay cuts or layoffs in the last year are
reporting that they have begun to restore compensation levels and rehire
employees,² said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder. ³While these are
positive indicators, the pace of hiring will remain restrained. It will
take time to rebuild the confidence needed in the nation¹s economy to
trigger more robust recruitment programs.²
Hiring in Q3 2009
The number of employers who increased their full-time, permanent headcount
in the third quarter was unchanged from the second quarter at 18 percent.
In terms of headcount reductions, 15 percent of employers reported declines
in staff levels in the third quarter, an improvement from 17 percent in the
second quarter. Sixty-five percent of employers reported no change in their
number of full-time, permanent employees while one percent were undecided.
Hiring in Q4 2009
Expectations for hiring in Q4 2009 are falling in line with the previous two
quarters while planned staff reductions continue to trend down. In the
fourth quarter, 17 percent of employers expect to add full-time, permanent
employees while 10 percent anticipate a decrease in headcount. Sixty-eight
percent anticipate no change while 5 percent are undecided.
Employers Bringing Back Laid Off Workers and Reversing Pay Cuts
While implementing measures to lessen spending and scale back risk in the
wake of the financial crisis, companies also recognized the need to secure
their competitive standing. Twenty-seven percent of employers reported
that, over the last year, they have laid off workers in one area, but hired
in another. The areas they primarily hired in were those linked to revenue
including technology, sales, customer service and research and development.
As the U.S. economy shows signs of stabilization and employers see potential
improvement in their business prospects, they are reversing strategies taken
to manage through tough economic times. Of employers who had layoffs in the
last 12 months, one-in-four (26 percent) reported their company is planning
to bring back some employees they let go earlier in the year. Of those
rehiring laid off workers, 23 percent already started extending job offers
to former employees in the third quarter while 19 percent will begin to do
so in the fourth quarter. Twenty-one percent will start bringing back laid
off employees in the first quarter of 2010, 15 percent in the second quarter
and 10 percent in the latter half of 2010. Others are holding off until
2011 and beyond.
Nearly one-in-five employers (18 percent) reported their organizations
implemented pay cuts in the last 12 months. Five percent of these employers
reported they restored pay to previous levels in the third quarter while 12
percent plan to do so in the fourth quarter. Seventeen percent expect pay
to return to normal in the first quarter of 2010, 7 percent expect it will
be the second quarter while another 7 percent are predicting the latter half
of 2010. One-in-ten (12 percent) stated their organizations don¹t plan to
restore pay to previous levels until 2011 or 2012 while 41 percent are not
sure.
Hiring By Region in Q4 2009
Regional trends have held steady. Benefitting from growth in healthcare,
education and energy, the South continues to produce more job opportunities.
Nineteen percent of hiring managers in the South expect to increase their
full-time, permanent staff in the fourth quarter followed by 17 percent in
the Northeast and 15 percent in the Midwest. The West continues to trail
the other regions in hiring at 14 percent with the coast being particularly
affected by the housing market crash and slowdown in international trade.
At the same time, the West also has the largest number of employers planning
to downsize staffs. Fourteen percent of hiring managers in the West expect
to trim headcount compared to 11 percent in the Midwest, 10 percent in the
Northeast and 8 percent in the South.
Compensation in Q4 2009
Compensation trends from the last two quarters are expected to carry over
into the fourth quarter. Half of employers (51 percent) anticipate no
change in salaries for full-time, permanent employees in the next three
months. One-in-four (26 percent) expect to raise salaries between 1 and 3
percent, one-in-ten (12 percent) expect to raise salaries 4 to 10 percent
while 2 percent expect an increase of 11 percent or more. Six percent plan
to decrease compensation while 4 percent reported their company is
undecided.
Note: Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online within the U.S. by Harris Interactive on
behalf of CareerBuilder and USA TODAY among 2,924 hiring managers and human
resource professionals (employed full-time; not self-employed; with at least
significant involvement in hiring decisions; non government); between August
20 and September 9, 2009 (percentages for some questions are based on a
subset of U.S. employers, based on their responses to certain questions).
With a pure probability sample of 2,924, one could say with a 95 percent
probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 1.81
percentage points. Sampling error for data from sub-samples is higher and
varies.
About CareerBuilder®
CareerBuilder is the global leader in human capital solutions, helping
companies target and attract their most important asset their people. Its
online career site, CareerBuilder.com®, is the largest in the United States
with more than 23 million unique visitors, 1 million jobs and 32 million
resumes. CareerBuilder works with the world¹s top employers, providing
resources for everything from employment branding and data analysis to
talent acquisition. More than 9,000 websites, including 140 newspapers and
broadband portals such as MSN and AOL, feature CareerBuilder¹s proprietary
job search technology on their career sites. Owned by Gannett Co., Inc.
(NYSE:GCI), Tribune Company, The McClatchy Company (NYSE:MNI) and Microsoft
Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), CareerBuilder and its subsidiaries operate in the
United States, Europe, Canada and Asia. For more information, visit
www.careerbuilder.com.
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