New York, July 6, 2009…The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ saw a moderate
decline in June. The index now stands at 88.4, decreasing 0.8 percent from the revised May figure of 89.1, and
down 21.6 percent from a year ago.
“Compared to the beginning of the year, the decline in the Employment Trends Index has significantly
moderated, and we therefore expect job growth to resume around the end of the year,” said Gad Levanon,
Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “However, over the last month, leading indicators of employment
were mostly disappointing, suggesting the Employment Trends Index is still seeking a bottom.”
This month, the components of the Employment Trends Index™ showed a mixed picture, resulting in
the moderate decline. The declining indicators were the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs
Hard to Get,” the Number of Employees in the Temporary-Help Industry, Industrial Production, Real
Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Job Openings.
The Employment Trends Index™ aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven
accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise”
to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index™ include:
*Percentage of respondents who say they find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Survey)
*Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
*Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
*Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
*Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
*Job Openings (BLS)
*Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
*Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index™ monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: www.conference-board.org/economics/employment.cfm.
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business-membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance AND better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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